天津無縫鋼管何時能回暖?

　　本周(3.23—3.27)天津無縫鋼管價格支撐乏力，部分規格小幅下滑。受上周管坯價格下跌及山東部分管廠出廠價下調影響，周初開市本地無縫鋼管市場商家(jia)心態(tai)即顯(xian)不(bu)穩(wen)，但(dan)大多仍是持穩(wen)觀(guan)望。周(zhou)(zhou)中至周(zhou)(zhou)后期，市場弱勢跡(ji)象愈加明(ming)顯(xian)，部分商家(jia)因月底資金壓力獲利套現(xian)的(de)心理而(er)采取降價出貨的(de)策略(lve)，使得市場拉(la)漲的(de)氛圍終結，低價資源不(bu)斷涌(yong)現(xian)。總(zong)體看來(lai)，本周(zhou)(zhou)天津無縫鋼管(guan)市場弱勢還(huan)是占據(ju)主(zhu)導態(tai)勢，主(zhu)流(liu)商家(jia)的(de)悲觀(guan)情緒不(bu)斷增強(qiang)，觀(guan)望氛圍也變(bian)得愈加濃(nong)重，后期形(xing)勢堪(kan)憂。

　　對于(yu)本(ben)地無縫(feng)鋼管(guan)市場的后期走勢，應(ying)結合以下(xia)因素進行分析。

　　1、市場(chang)方面：海(hai)外疫(yi)情蔓延、金(jin)融市場(chang)動蕩導致市場(chang)信(xin)心轉弱，鋼(gang)材短期供大于求現象仍(reng)然嚴重，后期價(jia)格走勢不容樂觀。

　　2、管坯方面(mian)：本(ben)地熱軋(ya)管坯價(jia)格(ge)暫穩(wen)，現(xian)天(tian)(tian)鋼產20#Φ50-75mm價(jia)格(ge)為3680元，與上周同期價(jia)格(ge)持平。原料支撐力(li)度不(bu)減，后(hou)期天(tian)(tian)津無縫(feng)鋼管下行空間不(bu)大。

　　3、宏(hong)觀方面(mian)：國(guo)內復工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率快(kuai)速回升，截(jie)至(zhi)上周末，1.1萬個重(zhong)點項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)復工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率為89.1%。其中重(zhong)大(da)鐵路項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)已(yi)基(ji)本復工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong);重(zhong)大(da)公(gong)路、水(shui)運(yun)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)復工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率為97%;機場(chang)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)復工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率為87%;重(zhong)大(da)水(shui)利工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程復工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率為86%。這些涉(she)及鋼材使用(yong)量大(da)的項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)，復工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率已(yi)經(jing)超過了86%，距離全(quan)面(mian)的復工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)已(yi)經(jing)指日可待。隨著(zhu)復工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)率的快(kuai)速回升，下游的鋼材需(xu)求量正(zheng)在穩步提升，將有(you)利緩解(jie)后期(qi)的供(gong)需(xu)壓力。

　　后(hou)期來看，在需求逐(zhu)步恢復(fu)的(de)(de)情況下，再加上(shang)大基建等政(zheng)策利好的(de)(de)影響，長遠來看大家對后(hou)市還是比較看好的(de)(de)。不過受到海外疫情以及(ji)全球經濟滑坡的(de)(de)影響，短期內天(tian)津無縫鋼(gang)(gang)管向好走勢(shi)節奏上(shang)將有(you)所放緩，預計下周天(tian)津無縫鋼(gang)(gang)管走勢(shi)仍將震蕩盤整。